In the years 2021-2030, the cost of energy generation will increase by 61% if Poland actually implements the scenario of the Polish government’s Energy Policy until 2040 (PEP2040). An alternative scenario developed by Instrat could cut costs by 31-50 percent. compared to PEP2040.
In December 2020, EU Member States agreed to raise the EU’s emissions reduction target to 55%. by 2030 (compared to 1990). It also means raising the EU’s RES target. Before the start of the “Fit for 55” negotiations, Poland seems to be on a collision course, proposing in PEP2040 a RES target that is almost half the expected EU average.
The new modeling of the Instrat Foundation shows that we can obtain the installed capacity of onshore wind farms at the level of 44 GW, for offshore wind farms it is 31 GW, and for roof and ground photovoltaic installations it is about 79 GW, taking into account strict criteria for the location and development pace of new power plant. The report published today proves that it is possible to achieve over 70 percent. the share of renewable energy in electricity production in 2030, while in PEP2040 an unrealistic value of 32 percent is declared.
Assuming the implementation of the RES development scenario proposed by Instrat, Poland would reduce CO2 emissions by 65% in the electricity sector. in 2030 compared to 2015. – The potential of RES on the Vistula River is sufficient to achieve the EU 2030 climate goals and almost completely decarbonise the electricity mix by 2040. Government plans for the development of RES included in PEP2040 assume that the RES potential will be stifled rather than its release. Unfortunately, this is what we see – in the form of blocking the development of onshore wind energy, destabilizing the law, sudden changes in support mechanisms. The national RES target should be significantly increased, and national law must support its achievement – comments Paweł Czyżak, co-author of the analysis.
The capacity structure proposed by Instrat allows for the balancing of the power system in the annual peak of demand, with no production from wind and sun, and unavailability of cross-border connections. On the other hand, in the PEP2040 scenario, this is only possible with the timely implementation of the nuclear power program, which is already significantly delayed. – Successive shutdowns and failures of domestic power plants show that the stability of electricity supply in Poland may not be obvious soon. To ensure the country’s energy security, we must focus on technologies that can be built immediately – e.g. windmills, photovoltaic installations, batteries – Paweł Czyżak enumerates.
Denying the role of renewable energy sources in the production of electricity raises not only doubts about energy security, but will lead to a threat to the competitiveness of the Polish economy and our dependence on energy imports. So what should you do? – It is necessary, inter alia, unblocking the development of onshore wind farms, timely implementation of offshore wind farms, postponing changes in the prosumer energy billing system, creating a system of incentives for the development of energy storage, adopting a hydrogen strategy, increasing financial outlays for grid modernization, and, above all, declaring an ambitious RES target as a result of EU arrangements – sums up Adrianna Wrona.
Source: Czyżak, P., Sikorski, M., Wrona, A. (2021). Co po węglu? Potencjał OZE w Polsce. Instrat Policy Paper 06/2021. https://instrat.pl/potencjal-oze/
Date of publication: 30 June 2021
